The Sept. 19 earthquake in Mexico provided another reminder about the risks of poorly reinforced buildings. According to government studies, there are literally thousands of older brick and concrete buildings in Oregon and Washington that could collapse in a strong earthquake.
Seismic retrofits would likely save lives - maybe even yours. But until now city and state governments in the Northwest have been reluctant to require that of property owners.
The focus here is on brick or stone buildings built before 1945, roughly speaking. The construction style is called unreinforced masonry. This category of earthquake-vulnerable structures includes thousands of schools, churches and apartment buildings. They're all over the Northwest in the historic core of cities large and small, said Eric Holdeman, former King County Emergency Management director, now a consultant from Puyallup, Washington.
"These are the buildings," Holdeman said, "as we've seen in Mexico most recently, that are in high danger of collapsing and killing people or severely injuring them. We've got a tremendous risk."
Going back decades, earthquake task forces in Oregon and Washington have issued reports calling for seismic rehab of vulnerable older buildings. Holdeman is dismayed his state hasn’t done a statewide inventory of these and is “dawdling” on making owners fix them.
"This isn't going to be done overnight," Holdeman said, "but the sooner you start the sooner we create a better, safe environment -- life safety. We're not talking about just well, it might not be that bad. We're talking about killer buildings."
Now along comes another report that restates the risk and solution.
Washington Governor Jay Inslee on Wednesday received a lengthy set of recommendations from state agency leaders for how to better prepare for a massive earthquake and tsunami. In Chapter 3: "Develop a mandatory building retrofit code," that includes enforcement and financing options for building owners. But it's assigned a lower priority, something to get to in five or ten years.
Major General Bret Daugherty is the head of the Washington National Guard.
"I think we should start sooner," Daugherty said, "and I'm very concerned about the unreinforced masonry buildings that we have."
Why delay taking action? Daugherty says a lack of funding from the legislature is part of it. He also noted the rarity of catastrophic earthquakes around here contributes to complacency. Daugherty participated in the Resilient Washington Subcabinet, which authored this latest report and recommendations at Inslee’s behest.
"You know, Governor Gregoire used to tell us, 'Never waste a good disaster,'" Daugherty said. "The Californians did not. They took advantage of that terrible experience to come out stronger. We have some moderate shakes here in the state of Washington but we have not had a major earthquake here."
The last 9.0 Cascadia megaquake struck in 1700. There's broad agreement that retrofits save lives, but they can be costly to perform and hard to finance. The job often involves tying together walls, floors and roofs and bracing cornices and parapets to prevent the raining of bricks and stones onto the sidewalk below.
Attorney Walter McMonies owns several vintage apartment buildings in Portland and sits on a city seismic policy committee. He describes pushback from some building owners.
"On the one hand," McMonies said, "the city wants us to do these retrofits. The normal way that you would pay for something expensive like that that the government makes you do is you raise your rents if you're a landowner. It looks like we're kind of between a rock and a hard place because they won't be very gracious about us raising our rents."
McMonies voluntarily completed a $1.3 million seismic upgrade recently of a brick apartment building his family owns with the help of historic preservation tax breaks.
In Portland, much more so than in Seattle, building owners have organized to advocate for their interests on earthquake code issues. McMonies lobbied the state legislature through a group called Masonry Building Owners of Oregon.
A separate group called "Save Portland Buildings" has organized an online petition to scale back the proposed retrofit requirement so that it doesn't result in unintended consequences such as eviction of tenants, closure of businesses and demolitions of beloved buildings.
"Many are worth less than the estimated retrofit costs. Many are not feasible," reads the group's online manifesto. "One demolition forced by government is one too many."
Portland and Seattle look to be in a slow race to see which succeeds first in making reinforcement of risky old buildings mandatory.
The Portland City Council is scheduled to take up this issue in mid-October. They’ll be looking at a proposal to provide some kind of public assistance in exchange for requiring owners to retrofit vulnerable buildings. A similar recommendation is on its way to the Seattle City Council for briefing later in the fall. Still unclear is if the political will to pass such a requirement exists.
Earlier this year, the Oregon Legislature gave cities and counties permission -- if they so choose -- to exempt owners of old buildings from local property taxes to mitigate the cost of seismic retrofits. The Washington Legislature considered but did not pass a proposed two-year, $10 million pilot program to provide loans and grants for safety upgrades to historic buildings.
The California Legislature long ago set into motion requirements for building owners to retrofit older buildings to survive big earthquakes. By 2010, some 134 jurisdictions had mandatory retrofit ordinances. The City of Los Angeles after much hand-wringing joined the crowd in 2015.
A survey by the City of Portland published last year identified roughly 1,600-1,800 seismically-vulnerable unreinforced masonry buildings inside the city limits including dozens of schools, churches and large apartment buildings.
There are more than 1,100 URM buildings in the City of Seattle according to the city's Department of Construction and Inspections. That inventory included lots of affordable housing, which is increasingly precious in the booming metropolis.
If a building owner undertakes a major remodel or changes the primary use of an old building, current codes in Oregon and Washington state require seismic vulnerabilities be addressed at that time.
Ever wonder what the predicted Cascadia earthquake will feel like where you live? If you live in Oregon, enter your zip code here: http://bit.ly/1Pv8KIG
In Washington state, enter your address here: https://geologyportal.dnr.wa.gov/#seismic_scenarios